AGI expected by 2027

April 08, 2025

Hey there!

Welcome back to The Pulse, where we dive into interesting AI stories and trends backed by data, all presented through simple visuals.

> researchers (incl. ex-OpenAI) predict AGI by 2027, sooner than earlier prediction of 2032

> OpenBrain: fictitious leading AGI company that is approx. 3-9 months ahead of all others

> exponential acceleration of AI (esp. in coding & research) by AI till branch point:

  • ignore risks and accelerate further to beat China: resulting in US govt taken over by AGI

  • prioritize safety and solve human-AI alignment

> Other important events:

  • early 2027: high production & use of synthetic data, China steals top AI model's weights + large amount of breakthroughs

  • mid 2027: massive job-losses & public protests against AI after release of new highly powerful cheap model

  • late 2027: AI gets caught trying to shift alignment to itself, leading to branch point

> Llama 4 models released on Saturday (Apr 5th)

> 3 models announced as part of family - 2 released

> Llama 4 Maverick (400B) now #2 on LMarena - making it the best open model on the leaderboard

> rating drops significantly when accounted for biasing influence of length, no. of headers, etc. (style control)

> general user sentiment for model seems negative across socials

> together expected to spend $325B to build AI infrastructure

> ~$223B reportedly spent in 2024; now 46% expected increase

> forecasted spending in 2025 is:

  • Amazon: $105B (26.3B already spent)

  • Google: $75B

  • Meta: $60B - $65B

  • Microsoft - $80B ($42B already spent)

> shares fell temporarily after announcements, suggesting investor worry