How OpenAI’s Partners built a $100B debt pile

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Welcome back to The Pulse, where we dive into interesting AI stories and trends backed by data, all presented through simple visuals.

> OpenAI has almost no debt (unused $4B credit line) but partners built ~$100B stack around it

> SoftBank, Oracle & CoreWeave already borrowed $30B+ for OpenAI, Blue Owl & Crusoe tied to another $28B & banks in talks for extra $38B for Oracle & Vantage

> $100B of debt tied to OpenAI ≈ net debt of world’s 6 largest corporate borrowers (VW, Toyota, AT&T, Comcast etc.)

> Oracle is the anchor: sold $18B bonds for OpenAI infra & may need ~$100B more over 4 yrs to meet contracts (incl. the $38B Vantage package) as it’s debt rises

> Blue Owl/Crusoe SPVs both repaid entirely via Oracle’s long leases (if Oracle stops paying, banks take the datacentres - not the companies)

> result: a ~$100B SPV-heavy, partner-financed build-out effectively powered by Oracle’s commitments, keeping almost all debt off OpenAI’s balance sheet

> Big Tech capex >$405B expected this year (44.6% above avg), with AI datacenters the main driver: now ~44% of total datacenter market

> still cash-flow positive despite the surge, with solid financial performance, except Amazon & mainly Oracle with some negative FCF quarters

> but debt rising fast (especially Oracle): companies raised a record $108B this year (3× the 9-yr avg).

> Oracle under most scrutiny: $18B bond sale tied to $38B Vantage package; capex ~$35B; FCF going to -$24B by 2028; stock -40% (on track for biggest 1-month drop in 25 years); CDS highest in 3 years

> Meta issued $30B, Alphabet $38B, Amazon $15B, but 80-90% of big-tech capex still funded from cash flow = generally seen as safe

> Net: huge datacenter build-out, leverage rising, revenue loops tightening, systemic risk creeping in, but analysts claim not enough to call an AI downturn

> Perplexity’s AI chatbot to be plugged directly into Snapchat’s chat interface early next year

> paying $400M in cash & equity for ~943M monthly active users (75% are 13-34 years old in >25 countries)

> Snap claims to start recording revenue from this deal in 2026